The coronavirus shutdown immediate impact is dramatic in its size, speed, and concentration on a few industries. I tried to find out where the virus and shutdown would have the greatest impact on the industry most affected by the shutdown. In February 2020, approximately 2.7 million workers worked in these industries.
While it will be impossible to know for certain until April 16, when data from the Bureau of Statistics about the March labour force is available, it seems reasonable to believe that the jobs of approximately 900,000.
What Jobs Are Most At-Risk Shutdown?
Below is a table that I have created to list the people I consider most at-risk. One group of approximately 1.4 million workers, primarily in industries that involve eating out, entertainment and accommodation, affect by government shutdowns.
Another group of workers is in the retail trades (nonfood) and personal service industries. The effect on jobs comes from consumers’ reduced spending on non-essential items.
Both at-risk groups have a high proportion of young workers. Over half of those in at-risk groups are younger than 35. Six of seven employees are employ. One in seven of the seven are owners/managers or work in a family-owned business.
The females make up slightly more than the males. They can split equally between part-time and full-time.
Certain Industries Will See Growth Shutdown
The coronavirus is causing rapid growth in some industries. These include the retail grocery trade, associated logistics services, and supply of office essentials required to work from home.
It is possible to see an increase in the demand for health services and health care over a short time.
There are other areas of increased demand, such as home delivery of goods purchased online and cleaning services. These services usually perform by volunteers or government agencies that are involve in COVID-19.
The Workforce total Will Shrink
The supply of workers has not had much impact so far, but it will. This is happening as more and more childcare centres and schools close, and more workers leave to care for their children. Parents are reluctant to outsource the responsibility to grandparents. The coming weeks will see more disruptions to the labour supply. COVID-19 illness causes workers to be force to take time off and others to care for their sick family members.
Although it’s difficult to quantify the extent of the withdrawal from the labor market, it could be significant. First, withdrawal to care for or avoid illness is most likely to have the greatest impact. In 2019, there were 1.21million families with children between 0 and 9 years old, where either one parent or both were employed. This is a sign of the scale of withdrawal.
There were 634,500 people 65-84 who did voluntary work in 2016. The impact of workers falling ill could also be significant on the supply of labour. If COVID-19’s current growth rate continues for the next three weeks and those who have been infected during the past two weeks are then unable work, that would mean that approximately 67,500 people will be out of work because of illness.
The dramatic impact of COVID-19 on employment is already evident in news images from Centrelink. In the coming weeks, further impacts are almost certain. This is the biggest challenge to the post-war labour market policy.